What do Fed Funds Futures tell us about Monetary Policy Uncertainty

The paper is here. I find that the uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data. The uncertainty is lowest when the path factor signals a loosening cycle and highest when it signals a loosening cycle. The uncertainty raises the risk premium in a loosening cycle, reducing the transmission of target changes to longer maturities. Our results trace the information content of federal funds futures to hedging demand.